While Amazon Prime Day spices up the summer doldrums, when it comes to deals, nothing will ever beat Black Friday. No longer is Black Friday a single day or even a single weekend. Oh, no, Black Friday is an entire freaking season that starts in October and runs clear to December 1. Yes, the biggest and best-est doorbusters and one-day deals will be reserved for November 24-27, but expect to see the words “Early Black Friday” start creeping into deals before the end of September.

Anything and everything you can sell on the internet seems to have some kind of sale during Black Friday, from the latest and greatest Android phones to the smallest earbuds to the biggest tablets. We’ll be covering them all over the next three months, but before the sales start springing up, you need to know what products and prices will be deals and which will be duds.

We’ve got the history and insight you need to know what deals are worth pouncing on and which you can sleep through after your Turkey Day feast.

When is Black Friday? When will deals start?

Black Friday itself this year falls on November 24, with Cyber Monday following it on November 27, but expect (Extra) Early Black Friday deals to kick off around early October. Amazon Prime Big Deal Days — Prime Day part 2, essentially — will be in October, and Best Buy and Walmart kicked off their Black Friday deal sections on the same day the last two years to get in on the spending zeitgeist. Amazon hasn’t shared the exact dates of this event yet, just that it’s in October, but it’s usually the second or third week of the month if the last three years are anything to go on.

After that initial eruption of deals, they’ll keep a low but consistent flow for the rest of October before picking up around November 5-10. The second week of November, the fire hose of deals will turn on full-blast and not let up until the weekend after Cyber Monday, which this year will be the weekend of December 1-3.

While you’ll never know if a deal will get better between October and Black Friday, 2022 showed us that they absolutely will sell out ahead of Black Friday if you wait too long to pull the trigger. This was especially true of smart home (the Google Nest Audio) and Chromebook deals last year. But on the flip side, some products actually kept dropping in price clear into December’s final holiday shopping days: The Galaxy Watch 4 dropped to $150 and then $140, where it stayed for weeks, while half a dozen of the best wireless earbuds dropped $50 in the early weeks and then switched to a $100 price cut for Black Friday itself.

Android phone deals: What we’re expecting

If you’re interested in the Google Pixel 8 or 8 Pro, which will be arriving this October, you can kick back and wait for Black Friday, as it will be undoubtedly discounted, and friends don’t let friends pay the Launch Day tax. On the other end of the Pixel spectrum, we expect to see the Pixel 6a back down to $250 the way it was on Prime Day — or maybe even $200 — and the Pixel 7a at $325-$400, the way it should’ve been already. While it’s unclear what the discounts on the Pixel 7 series will be more in the range of $500 or down in the $400-$450, whether it will be a better buy than the Pixel 8 can’t be determined until the phone arrives, and we figure out which annual flaw it has this year. (Don’t look at me like that; we both know there will be something wrong with this phone at some point between October and December.)

Amazon and Best Buy have been very, very generous with their deals on the best Samsung Galaxy phones in 2023. The Galaxy S23 series gets $100/$150/$200 discounts at least twice a month, and last spring’s Galaxy S22 Ultra pops up with a $650-$800 deal once every few weeks. On the foldable front, Galaxy Z Fold 5 and Flip 5 deals have been limited to carriers and trade-ins so far, but ideally, we’ll see $400 off the Fold 5 and $150-$200 off the Flip 5 and double that discount on the Fold 4/Flip 4. Discounts on the Galaxy A-series have been fewer and further between this year, but expect the Galaxy A54 at $350 or less.

Motorola’s Razr+ saw some early deals for Prime Day, but with it being consistently $100 off in recent weeks, we’d need to see it get $200 off or more, especially when we know the Flip 5 will be seeing enhanced trade-in deals and carrier incentives. Meanwhile, OnePlus always has “mystery box” early Black Friday promotions running, but it’s unclear if those will focus on the OnePlus 11 or OnePlus 10T — which we’ve even seen below $400 of late. OnePlus’s discounts during Prime Day weren’t stupendous, but they were still worth considering for the 10T and the Nord series.

Android tablet deals: What we’re expecting

While deals on iPads are pretty much a given every Black Friday, deals on Android tablets are much more varied. This year, we got a new generation of Galaxy Tab S9 tablets, which means this year’s Samsung tablet sales are poised to be quite diverse. We’ve only seen free storage upgrades on the Tab S9 series so far — Black Friday is primed to be the first significant discount on them — but the Galaxy Tab S8 series has been regularly $100-$200 off, and I hope to see the Tab S9+ $300 off again, the way it was on Prime Day.

We’re getting closer to the announcement of the Galaxy Tab A9, but even if we weren’t, the Tab A8 has consistently been $100 off or more during each of the last three deal events (two Prime Days and Black Friday 2022). The Tab S7 FE and Tab S6 Lite will likely see some deals, too, but the S7 FE is getting harder and harder to find these days.

Lenovo’s tablets are a bit of a mixed bag: the budget-minded models are already seeing their average discounts, but if you want a P12 Pro, you’ll likely have to wait until Black Friday itself — and even then, Samsung’s deals will likely undercut it. Similarly, the expected deals for the Google Pixel Tablet aren’t likely to get it below $400, making it a bit of a non-starter unless you’re a Pixel Superfan. I have a little more faith that the OnePlus Pad will make it down into the $300s, but OnePlus may go the bundle deal route again instead.

And rounding out the bottom of the budget barrel, we have the Amazon Fire tablet series: Amazon always discounts its entire tablet lineup, and Black Friday will not be an exception, especially since the new Fire 11 Max debuted back in April. Amazon seems to have cleaned out its remaining stock of the previous generations of the Fire 7, HD 8, and HD 10, but we’ll likely see discounts in the 30-55% range for those, while the 11 Max is more likely to only see a 15-25% cut.

Chromebook deals: What we’re expecting

Chromebooks are a category that gets a little weird around Black Friday. See, Prime Day falls smack dab in the middle of the back-to-school shopping season, and it’s around the time most kickass Chromebooks announced in January and launched in May get their first discounts. Black Friday is outside that calendar, and November is when the older models that were discontinued that summer tend to sell out forever, which we saw last October with a number of models.

For Lenovo, models to watch for will be the Lenovo Flex 3i (Gen 8) with its 12.2-inch 1080p touchscreen in a compact chassis, the Lenovo Flex 5i in both 13.3 and 14-inch varieties — just please opt for Intel Core processors over Pentium or Celeron — and its Duet series, the most prevalent and popular Chromebook tablets around. Best Buy has been heavily discounting Lenovo and Acer Chromebooks, and I recommend watching the entire Acer Chromebook Spin series. From the student-friendly Spin 311 to the beefy Spin 714 to the Goldilocks “just right” Spin 513 and Spin 514, Acer’s got a Chromebook for you, you just might have to wait a week or two for the sale to cycle back around.

Speaking of Best Buy, Chromebook deals tend to be more reliable and prevalent on Best Buy than Amazon, but every now and again, Amazon will slip Chromebook deals into larger PC promotions. Especially if you’re looking for budget-minded Chromebooks for school-age kids, you’ll need to be extra-vigilant about checking model numbers and AUE dates when shopping Amazon’s vast ocean of duplicated Chromebook listings.

Earbud and headphone deals: What we’re expecting

Super smart wireless earbuds get sweet deals all year long, so it’s not really a question of if but rather when the deals will arrive. This year, Samsung and Google haven’t released any new buds, which is great news for hopeful buyers. We’ve seen the Pixel Buds Pro down to $140 this year, but I’m hoping to see them hit $120 and for the Galaxy Buds 2 Pro to go to $150 or less. Jabra had almost its entire lineup half-off last year, but things might not be quite as generous this year. Similarly, Sennheiser and Bose seem to be keeping to their “standard” $50 off so far this fall for earbuds and $80 for headphones.

The audio deal we’re eagerly awaiting this Black Friday is for the new Sony WF-1000XM5 earbuds. Launching at the end of July, we’ve yet to see a single discount on them so far. Amazon’s October Prime event might break that streak, but if not, that honor will undoubtedly fall to Black Friday. And thank goodness, because while Sony’s buds are amazing, $300 is too steep for most of us to stomach. The previous XM4 buds seem to be getting into shorter supply already, but if there are enough in stock, maybe we’ll see them hit $150 after last year’s $180 Black Friday deal. Sony has been cycling regular discounts for the WH-1000XM5 and XM4 regularly all summer — $350 for the XM5 and $280 for the XM4 — but hopefully, they’ll both get an extra $50 off for the holiday shopping season.

Smartwatch and wearable deals: What we’re expecting

The Galaxy Watch series will likely clean up again this Black Friday. I say “again” because last year’s $140 Galaxy Watch 4 deal was one of the best deals of 2022, and it will almost certainly return this November. The watches you’ll really want to watch, though, are the Galaxy Watch 6 and Watch 5. Samsung has stopped selling the Galaxy Watch 5, but everyone else still has it and should drop it down into the $150-$200 range, which will be a price performer unless we see the Watch 6 hit $230. Samsung will have enhanced trade-in deals for the Galaxy Watch 6 — in fact, guaranteed minimum $50 trade-in is available right now — and hopefully throwing in a free fabric strap. (I’ve been in love with mine.)

Black Friday will likely be the first time the upcoming Google Pixel Watch 2 gets discounted, so you’ll want to hold out until Turkey Day for that. The original Pixel Watch might drop into the $250 ballpark, although you’re probably better off with the Pixel Watch 2 or a Galaxy Watch 6 for that money. Kicking over from Google to Fitbit, we expect these deals to match last year — as none of the products have been replaced — but given the way fitness deals have shaken out over 2023, I’m not holding my breath to see any new lowest prices ever.

Garmin and Mobvoi have some more recent watches that we’re hoping to see discounted, but things are still a bit murky on that front for now.

Smart home deals: What we’re expecting

Amazon Echo Pop smart speaker sitting on a table besides smartphone running Alexa app

From Arlo’s excellent security cams to Philips Hue light bulbs to Kasa’s sleek smart plugs and beyond, just about every smart home device you can imagine is already seeing some kind of discount, even if it doesn’t get deals throughout the regular year. Case in point, while the Google Nest Audio might be three years old, it’s still the best Google Assistant smart speaker, bar none, and it’s been discounted less than five times all year. But, last Black Friday, you could buy two for $90, and for a wonderfully brief window, single speakers were discounted down to $45. I took advantage of both deals and bought three Nest Audios for my own apartment last year, and this deal sold out multiple times over the course of October and November.

Amazon and Google always heavily discount their security cameras, doorbells, smart displays, and streaming sticks for Black Friday, and even third-party ecosystems from TP-Link, Arlo, Wyze, and Eufy seem to put everything and the kitchen sink on sale. Products you’ll want to watch for this go around are the Ring Video Doorbell Plus, Amazon Echo Pop, Google Nest Doorbell — I want to see this finally dip to $130 or less — Amazon Fire TV Omni QLED series, and Synology NAS systems. (Okay, I admit, beefy NAS devices might not be smart in the normal smart home sense, but they will make your smart streaming setup awesome.)

For smaller smart home devices like smart lights from Philips Hue, Govee, and more, as well as smart plugs, robot vacuums, and connected devices like smart air purifiers and smart coffee makers, deals are always popping up, but we recommend waiting until at least the end of October before pulling the trigger.